Writing a magic system for your table top RPG, part 1

What is the role of magic in your world? 

Most tabletop games are really designed to be played in high magic settings. There are plenty of reasons to run a high magic world where common enchanters solve common problems with their overflow of magics. There are plenty of reasons to run a gritty world where magic is rare, never the go to solution, and a spell going off is enough power to cause awe and fear in equal measures. 

This may be the most important question for people engaged in world building or writing RPG mechanics. If you want magic to be rare but powerful and awe inspiring, then having 4 of 5 party members being able to cast unlimited cantrips tells the opposite story of your world. This is not a minor world building issue, but it is the most common mismatch I see in games. 

That said, if magic is widely available, then your world would not be like the European middle ages. Those magics should change the world dramatically and, once again, having those magics available but not recognized by or folded into the world building is story breaking. It is using mechanics to tell one story while the DM’s narration tells an entirely different story. If prestidigitation is everywhere, then you don’t need public baths. If healing potions are in every shop, why do towns have doctors and are people still going to churches to pray for healing? 

This thread is core to your world building. It determines if every town has an enchanter or if only the King can afford a court wizard, and a dubious court wizard at that. Is your world’s magic a larger interconnected system or a mix of odd abilities cobbled together by mad sorcerers playing with powers they don’t understand. The former needs a library or a school and those would have heavy political influence or be controlled by those who do. The latter needs a scattering of odd abilities and nebulous power sources. Each approach requires different histories and areas in your world. 

How powerful do you want it to be in combat? In non-combat challenges? In support? 

Regardless of whether this is an author challenging their main character or a DM challenging their players, part of what you have to determine is what kind of questions does magic contain the answers for. A story without a challenge is a crappy story. So if magic is always available and always solves everything without a cost then there is really no story. Magic can destroy your story… so be careful. Don’t build a system that is so cool that it makes your story or world suck. 

There are two approaches to solve for this: 

  • Limit the amount spells that can be used, either by cost or limit charges 
  • Limit the power of spells, so they help to solve more that entirely solve the problem 

While this pair of approaches is common, many games end up with both limitations breaking down due to power scaling. While there are many ways to control the amount of spells, the bigger problem is often limiting the power of spells, specifically utility spells. Trying to keep a limit on those spells so they are still useful compared to other spells while also not just entirely solving the problem at hand. 

As an example, older versions of D&D had really detailed and nuanced travel mechanics that forced critical game decisions… unless you got Good Berry, Leomund’s Tiny Hut, and Pass without a Trace at which point travel challenges lost all meaning. Resources no longer mattered and all strategic concerns are removed. As a DM, if you want travel to be an issue in your world then you have to get rid of those three spells. If you think travel is a pain in the butt and a waste of time, then give those spells away as much as you can. 

Now this is also where we run into the “whimsical high magics”. These are worlds like Harry Potter or many old Disney movies. The spells are very specific, very silly, and are generally played for a laugh or a smile. This level of flavor but not power is often really engaging. Let owls deliver the mail or brooms sweep the floors themselves. Let a princess sing so birds fly in and give her a french braid. This gives the world a magical feel without giving players god-like powers. 

Vancian Magic 

This was the original system used in D&D and variations of it are still core to most tabletop RPGs games. It is a highly formal system. The idea is that magic users have a limit on how many spells they can have memorized at a time. This limit is not just the total number of spells, but also takes into account the power of those spells. When they cast a spell, they “forget” that spell. The spell list limited both the quantity and quality of spells available. 

Spells in this system are traditionally discreet and consistent between casts and casting magic is reliable. You are able to take multiple copies of the same spell but this limits your versatility as a caster. 

Vancian Variant 0.1 – the 3rd edition Cleric 

So this was less a system and more a special rule. Clerics used the traditional vancian system but with one exception. Life Clerics could mark off any spell and instead cast Cure Wounds. Death Clerics could do the same thing but it would be Inflict Wounds. In a game without flexible casting, this was seen as very powerful. 

But there is no reason this can’t be done with other classes using a Vancian system. Basically it is just picking a first level spell that can scale with level and making that your “signature spell”. I see no reasons why a specialist wizard should not have the same ability. An illusionist gains silent image. Evocation gains burning hands or magic missile. All of this is super simple to house rule. 

Vancian Variant 1 – Mana 

The first variant method is so common it is actually in the 5e D&D DMG and thus an official variant, that is the spell point system or mana system. This is often written as a conversion option for magic users in the game as it exists today. Spell slots are converted to a pool of mana points. Spells are given a mana point cost. Total number of known spells is generally lower because in the original Vancian system players would often take multiple copies of their favorite spells. So if you have 10 spell slots, maybe learn about 6 spells. 

This system is often seen as a more flexible and less complex version of the original. The problem here is it does often encourage one trick pony casters. The guy who only casts fireball loves this system… but that does get old. If your spell list has any imbalances between spells, then this system often emphasizes that problem. 

Vancian Variant 2 – Spell Save System 

This is a fairly common variant in the OSR world. Instead of spells being guaranteed to be successfully casted each time, you roll for success or fail. On success the spell goes off and you still remember that spell. On a fail, no spell happens and you forget the spell. This changes the risk reward profile of magic, making it far more hit and miss. 

Like variant 1, this system can simply be applied on top of an existing system without the need to change everything around. It does add a level of randomness to your game, so it will be more unbalanced. The good news is it does produce both overpowered and underpowered outcomes naturally for a larger dungeon. The problem is in moment to moment encounters, this kind of casting can make them entirely trivial or the party is basically down a player. 

This goes back to the question “what is magic in your world” because if you want rare but powerful magic, then this does a great job of that as casters chain a series of big spells together. If you want rare magic, then just wait until 2 or 3 spells fizzle in a row. Magic will feel rare and unreliable. 

Vancian Variant 2.1 – Mis-spell System 

Similar to above but the negative consequence is not you forgetting the spell but miscasting it. So this is a tongue-firmly-in-cheek system. So for example, the spell “send message” on a fail would instead turn into “send massage” and the target would get a nice back rub instead of critical information. “Speak to Dead” could become “Speak to Dad” and trying to cover the floor in “Grease” could instead covers it in “Geese” and that flock starts to run around and pull Untitled Goose Game shenanigans for the rest of the session. This takes a bit of extra work from the DM and players but it does add humor to the table. For balance reasons, maybe you lose the original spell for an hour or so, but not the normal length of time.

I actually really like this system, but not for all worlds. This does not fit in a gritty setting, but is great for a one shot in a magic castle. I am also unsure how well the jokes will play out over a long campaign. 

I first saw this idea here: https://www.prismaticwasteland.com/blog/spelling-errors-a-magic-miscast-alternative and I kind of love it. So credit where credit is due. 

Vancian Variant 1.1 or 2.2 – Shadowrun’s Drain 

So in the kitchen sink of a cyberpunk game, Shadowrun uses a drain system. This game basically has two different health pools and some abilities, like magic, damage the second pool. If you are a fighter type, this second health pool is just extra health. If you are a magic or special skills user, this is your mana pool, AKA variant 1.1. Generally you can assign incoming damage from enemies to either health pool so you are always playing a mini risk vs. reward game negating incoming damage vs. having mana to spend on attacks next turn. 

Here the spell always works… but you roll to resist stun damage. So while the power of the spells is far more consistent, here the wildness of the system created by a failed roll is the cost you paid to cast the spell, thus making it a bit like a spell save system, AKA variant 2.2. This magic system fits into the narrative of that extreme setting as spells always work, something spells get a ton of extra damage, and something they render the caster unconscious afterwards because they dealt too much damage. It is all very metal and very Shadowrun. 

Vancian Variant 3 – what the heck is 5e’s system exactly? 

So 5e D&D doesn’t really use any of the 3 previous interchangeable systems. They have kind of a mix of Original Vancian and Variant 1. In effect, they have multiple tiny mana pools which overlap down and multiple tiny spell lists with overlap up. Casters are able to cast any 2nd level spell with any 2nd spell slot. That sounds simple. But the nuance here is that many 2nd level spells can also be cast with higher level spell slots for extra kick and higher level spells slots can be used to cast lower level spells, thus higher quality slots actually give you both more power and more versatility. 

This system gives you some of the flexibility of the Variant 1 with some of the rigidness of the original still in there. When you get into the details, it gets fairly complex very quickly and that gives you some strange decisions at various points in time. This system has a nice mix of spell balance and flexibility, but the strange overlaps do end up feeling a bit less like a flexible design and more like it’s wobbly enough that players can make it fit if they shove on it hard enough. 

Thank you all for reading, we will pick up next week with part 2 where we talk about alternatives to the Vancian variants and see what happens when we try to combine all the ideas into one system.

Hardcore WoW, unlearning old lessons

Blizzard’s new hardcore World of Warcraft servers have been really interesting to play on for the last 2 weeks. This server is classic wow but with the twist that characters can’t come back to life. Because it is classic wow, a game that is really well understood and as expected, a hundred videos and blog posts popped up about what to do and which route is best and what classes you should play. 

… and almost all of those have been proven to be completely wrong. Why? Why is advice about a game from 2004 wrong? Is nearly 20 years and millions of nerds not enough to understand it? 

So in this case the issue is clear: people misunderstand the problem. Almost all of that advice was based on how quick you can get to level 60 or what class was the best at level 60. Currently, the average character dies at level 13. This completely changes the dynamics of the game. 

Turns out the end game is not the hardest part of wow, it is surviving the early levels. And this makes a lot of sense. Characters at level 60 have a large and well rounded set of skills to deal with a range of situations. This is something that content makers know and spend a lot of time talking about those classes in the level 60 context as the end game is the part they play regularly. But those skills are slowly given out as you level up. It doesn’t matter if a hunter has the best survival skill in the game if they don’t get that skill until level 30. 79% of the hunters die before level 30 and thus will never see that skill. In fact, most hunters never see their pet… which is what the entire class is built around. 

The second great mistake is all the leveling guides. These are all built around efficiency of time to xp… but in hardcore they really need to focus on risk mitigation. Quests are designed to push you to the next zone or go fight a deadly monster… which is the least safe way to play. Picking a spot with the most escape routes and steadily but quickly killing enemies a few levels lower than you gives you the most money and most xp in the safest way. This is an MMORPG where the quests are bad. In many ways this is a return to the old everquest style of grinding out levels against random enemies. 

Now Blizzard made very little changes to the game itself. In fact, they were so lazy they left in the resurrection spells but just disabled their effect. The one thing that has been added in is an announcement system via add-ons. If someone dies in your guild, you learn who, at what level, and what killed them. Generally this is followed by lots of “F” in the chat to show respect. But this also really brings the guild together in an odd way. Everyone learns to avoid certain areas. Everyone shares the pain when a higher level player dies. In a social game, this does really change how the game feels. 

This design also forces you to ask yourself “what is powerful in this game?’. And in this case it is not the traditional dps meter (overall offense) or even best tank/healing abilities. It is the pairing of the panic button abilities that let you stay alive just 3 more seconds to run away and awareness by the player to know they need to run away. This forces much of the traditional wisdom out the door. 

For example, Paladins are slow levelers so everyone on classic goes Retribution spec to get just a bit more damage on a normal server. But by doing so, you skip past some of the Paladin’s best survival mechanisms. Turns out to play well in hardcore, you have to unlearn much of what you did originally because the priority is risk mitigation now. 

This also leads us to an important note. The best class in the game… maybe a profession. At low levels, the target dummy from engineering is an amazingly strong panic button ability. In fact it is better than what most classes have at this level. And because there are so many low level characters starting over again there are plenty of cheap materials on the auction house for you. At level 40, the gnomish invisibility device gives you 10 seconds of invisibility, which is one of the strongest survival options in the game. Alchemists get a similar potion that doesn’t require the profession, so keep an eye out. These two options are better than what most classes get for the whole of the game. 

An update on Star Chaser… and a bit more

So lots of changes, some rewrites, and finally a big update

I think the result of the last patch went well. The game moved forward better and I am being more direct about the underlying mechanics behind the game, which helps clarify some of the math for players. Originally there were 4 tiers of power with the 3rd and 4th tiers having 1 and then 2 drawbacks. My players universally did not engage with the two drawback options after many repeat offerings, so easy enough to remove. 

Over the last year, I have had two players engage with the magic relic system. Neither really followed through with it but for reasons outside the game mechanics. This means I have an entire subsystem that is mostly untested. Good news: one of my players has made a new character that leans hard into the relic system so we will finally see how that plays out. 

I have been testing the larger mech and armor side of the game and overall… I am just not happy with it. Originally I was using BattleTech as a starting point and simplifying the mechanics again and again until it was quick and simple to learn/play. BattleTech is built around 5 types of weapons for a total of ~31 different weapons. I cut it down to 8. I then assigned those weapons to a few frames to add a feel of mech battle to the game. 

The rough design was: 

  • Missiles were the best damage but had limited ammo and some hard counters to them 
  • Cannons were ok damage and as a bonus there are no counter measures to them
  • Some of the hard counters to missiles had secondary usages 

Missiles ended up being overly powerful. Not in terms of damage but in terms of decision making. If you could fire a missile, you should fire a mission regardless of what the other options are. The other weapons were just not as engaging as they should have been. The EW and other anti-missiles systems were ok, not great but also not bad. 

In the last 2 weeks I have done a bit of redesign on it. I have spent some time with Lancer. Great set of ideas, really messy game. This is one of those games that is filled to the brim with great ideas but due to complexity, and a poorly organized players handbook, it ends up being far less than the sum of its parts. That said, there are some really simple and easy to administer ideas that I think can be patched over. This should give players more fun lateral options. I also like how Lancer handles both their action economy as well as their heat system, which they do far better than BattleTech does. 

This redesign has reduced the pool of mechs to 7, 3 are the traditional good-better-best mix and then 4 niche mechs are added in. I was also using “pods” to hold 1 big weapon or a mix of small weapons. Then there were rules for constructing those mixed pods, the idea being to bring in all those infantry weapons they were collecting along the way. That may be too messy. I am instead making this less fluid with large slots which can hold predetermined pieces or systems where systems grant some of those unique flavor abilities. This allows me to realign to a new mech specific action economy: 

  1. Move and Full Action (read, larger weapons and missiles) 
  2. Move and 2 Quick Actions (read, smaller weapons and systems) 
  3. Overdrive: Move, 3 Quick Actions, gain 1 Heat (Overdriving boosts some systems) 
  4. Shed Heat, this is automatically triggered at 3 Heat 

Here the quick actions are some of the smaller weapons and systems. With missiles being the problem child, this provides a boost to the non-missiles weapons but with a controllable  drawback. I also wanted to provide two very different styles of play here, the first being the slow lumbering mech firing powerful weapons but in a style that is simple to play and adjudicate. The second is a multi-step comboing of actions with some push your luck elements thrown in. I might end up folding action 2 and action 3 together based on play testing.

All of these ideas still need a lot of testing, once again the mech level of the game needs to be able to move fluidly with the infantry level and the star-fighter level as well as be its own system with dynamic play. I do like that idea of giving different levels of play different action economies to make them feel different.

RPG Chaser

And while all of that is great, it is not the big news. I have put together the core rules for “RPG Chaser”. A system designed for DM’s who want to build their own worlds and their own systems. I see this as the front 80% of whatever custom system a DM wants to build. This doc will be free and released with multiple campaign settings included in it. This includes Star Chaser for sci-fi, Steam Chaser for steampunk, Cyber Chaser for cyberpunk (this is actually my original burning light setting) and Bullet Chaser for a post-apocalypse campaign, be it more zombie or more Fallout. I have few other settings I may or may not include. These settings are not “the correct way to play” a genre but example of how you could do it.

Back in my Alpha Test part 3 post… 4 years ago, I talk about having a system where DMs can bring in different themes to match their worlds. RPG Chaser is a more granular version of that. I recognized that my attempts to define themes was actually super limiting. Instead I am now focused on letting DMs create their own themes and I am fleshing out the rules and long lists of examples that DMs can leverage as building blocks to make whatever kind of world or game they want to run.

A book review and reexamination of history

So I just finished reading The Fall of the Rome Empire by Michael Grant, find it here: https://www.amazon.com/Fall-Roman-Empire-Michael-Grant/dp/0684829568

Great book and some really solid historical research. There are a couple of overarching ideas that I think go unchallenged when people talk on this topic and this book does a great job diving into those details and making those corrections. 

The east did not fall 

This is the biggest issue with this topic and I think one that gets overlooked in pop history. While we call the east roman empire the Byzantines, they did not. They called themselves Roman. And… yea, they really were roman. They had roman law, followed roman traditions, and provided support (often, not always) to the western empire. The Eastern Roman held on until the 15th century, although decline slowly started in the 11th century. Still, that is a much longer time than the 5th century fall of the west. 

Why does this matter? Because there are many, many narratives about why the western roman empire fell but many of those stories would also equally describe the east. So why didn’t the east fall? This is the problem with a lot of pop history on the subject and it can be a great slice of applied social science. Whenever someone says “the roman empire fell because of X, so we should stop doing that too” go and see if the eastern roman empire was doing it as well. If they were, then that didn’t cause the fall. One of the important ideas in science is to have falsifiable theories, i.e., theories that can be disproven. History has given us a great A/B test for those ideas. 

The west did not fall… it was conquered

This is another key idea. Normally when people talk about the fall of the roman empire they begin to look for internal problems or cultural issues… but Rome was conquered by an external party. Repeatedly. Maybe Rome was good but the Germanic tribes were just better? I think we still carry a bit of this anti-barbarian bias in our analysis but the fact of the matter is the various Germanic tribes built large, complex, and very capable military forces. That is not just “bravery” and strength from “hard living” or other nonsense ideas assigned to “barbarians” but that the Germanic tribes in particular had well practiced strategic adaptation by chieftains, reliable social structures, and a sizable iron industry. 

The highly localized structure of the Germanic Tribes made low level chieftains well practiced diplomats as they could not just ask a higher power but had to build coalitions at the local level. Adapting a specific tribe to a military niche or a flexible alliance were common. While Romans had their famous standardized legions, Germanic tribes often called up much larger forces with more mixed units. Within those masses would be smaller, more professional forces of specific types to counter specific military problems. 

As small independent tribes, these groups may side with one roman faction or another at different times. This well practiced political flexibility of leadership and variability of unit types often placed them as king makers at key points in time. They then leveraged that power into more land, more resources, and placed themselves into yet another, more powerful, king maker position. This was supported by a local iron industry that was both widespread and far larger than expected. For decades now archaeologists keep finding more and larger ancient iron forges from this era. This means Rome’s normal technological advantage was not there. 

The hard truth is… the Romans got out played while maintaining a high quality force. Even if many of Rome’s internal issues were addressed and more unity was in place, those Germanic tribes would still be at the gate, well armed, and in larger numbers. Any weakness in the passing of the crown, which was common in Rome, was aggressively exploited by the less formal Germanic chieftains who played those games with each other at all times. 

When they weren’t engaged in king making, they were ambushing Roman forces and making Rome fight not as their larger, complex but capable military, but as small units against smaller units where artillery or logistical advantage were not really a factor. As an ally, they were uniquely capable of eroding Rome from the inside. As an enemy, they were uniquely capable of eroding Rome from the outside. And because there were so many factions within the Germanic tribes, Rome was never fully sure which they were dealing with. This caused distrust, which undid Rome’s great power: their ability to integrate new peoples. The disunified Germanic tribes did not transition to Roman. 

A shift in cities 

It is also important to note the shifts that had already happened within the Roman Empire. Rome had already moved from being the king of cities to a 2nd or 3rd tier city below places like Constantinople, Alexandria, Corinth, and yes, even Carthage. These had grown to be larger and more important cities within the empire and seen as the choice governor appointments over places like Hispania or Gaul. 

Did Rome fall… or did Rome just move elsewhere? Both are true, but I think the latter makes more sense and is a far more honest reflection of the changes that had already happened. Much like the loss of Normandy did not end the English crown, being Roman no longer required Rome itself. And while no one was happy with Rome getting (partially) sacked, it was better that it happened to Rome than some of the other cities in the Empire. 

So let’s talk about that “(partially) sacked” part. The city and nearby estates were sacked, the Germanic tribes are partially-kind-of-mostly christian at this point. They did not sack the Vatican. There were sacred lines they did not cross. That line used to be the Rubicon, now it was the faith. While there was a shift between cities, there was also a shift away from government into faith. The church was becoming more important than the state, and while the state fell the church did not. At the time, this was generally seen as a good trade. Better to lose a 3rd rate but historic city and the riches within than lose the faith that binds us all together. 

Why we talk about imperial overstretch wrong today 

So this is the one that took me by surprise. Most references to imperial overstretch completely misunderstand that argument. Today, the argument is generally used by the left to point out the problems with having too large a military and getting yourself drawn into too many global conflicts.

But that is not actually the argument. The argument is that having a too large military causes a high tax burden and the high tax burden angers the people at all levels of society. Society then rewrites itself to push off the tax burden on to the other parts of society. This creates disunity by completely drowning one part of society in taxes, completely destroying it in the process so the burden falls on the next part, destroying it, and so on and so forth. At its core, this is not a liberal anti-military argument, it is a conservative anti-tax argument. 

The failure of local government 

And that tax burden was a real issue. Specifically in the roman case there was a class of people called curiales which acted as the local city council. They oversaw local laws, were responsible for local taxes, and governed the area as an inherited title. Early in the empire this was a good position to hold but as time went on it became the worst of both worlds. These local city councils were personally liable for taxes not collected. For most of the empire’s history, they always collected “extra tax” which they kept and were able to do so without angering too many people.. mostly. Now, they struggled to collect enough taxes. This forced the local government to be more and more heavy handed with the lower classes to raise taxes, it meant the higher nobility senators quickly wrote laws removing themselves from these titles, and there are many cases of lesser noble families bankrupting themselves due to having to pay the taxes from their own coffers year after year. 

As time went on, the emperor had to create new laws limiting the travel of Curiales, punishment for those who aided Curiales from flee from their inherited noble rank, and in 365 AD, Emperor Valen wrote an edict forbidding judges and city councils from granting the title of Curiales as punishments for criminal acts. Just imagine a government position so screwed up, that instead of running for the office to get the job, you got the job because you got in a bar fight and committed assault, and then the emperor steps in and says “no, that is too cruel a punishment for assault, just send him to the gladiatorial pits instead. That will only end his life, not that of all of his descendants”. 

How do you trust that Curiales to survey your land? To record your trades or legal proceedings? To entrust them with your children when they reach age for military training? During a trial? The roman countryside was built around these offices and they had completely fallen apart as a means of government. This is what bound the bulk of the countryside and estate to the city network that was the Roman Empire. 

Dropping out of society 

The Curiales were not the only people dropping out of the empire. Civic duty had collapsed, but like the Curiales each of those collapses was very specific and hard to find a good alternative for. The empire used to attract new soldiers with promises of land… but they ran out of land. Getting local titles seemed like a double edge sword so that could not be leveraged either. The edges of the empire were now either ocean, desert, or Germanic tribes so filling in gaps by recruiting outside the empire did not work any more. 

Social developments were also making this harder. Christian monks and scholarly orders had started to pop up. Many of these ran for the hills to get away from the sin of roman cities, thus removing many of the most educated people of the time from society. Small factions developed all along Christianity… but not in a splintering way. Each was independent, disconnected, and kept to themselves. They were friendly to each other, letters were exchanged and often monks would visit each other, but as a whole they left everyone else alone and were left alone. They did not challenge the authority of the Pope in Rome so the church did not really push back against them, even if they were a bit outside doctrine. 

The big take-away 

The final result of this book was great. A lot of the little fissures in roman society became even more clear while at the same time it never looked past the fundamental historical truths that it was taken down by a capable outside opponent and the east did not fall due to similar internal issues. It showed that at the end of the day, the western roman empire kind of just didn’t have much to offer its citizens anymore, or maybe what it had to offer was more toxic than beneficial. The things that bound the empire together stopped working and where simply never replaced, fixed, or improved upon. Maybe there are paths that could have saved them… but those are few and hard to see. 

Why defense analysts should abandon the “near peer” concept

The term “near peer competitor” is used constantly inside the beltway. It is the official code word in military and diplomatic circles for Russia and China. It is a theoretical idea for an enemy… that just happens to look exactly like Russia and China.

And near peer competitor is the justification of all kinds of defense spending. Want a new air superiority fighter? Make a reference to an unproven prototype with over hyped abilities. What more heavy tanks? Point at whatever armor is their newest model. Want a new piece of tech? Claim it is the wonder weapon to defeat some niche, low volume capability the other side has. Want to reorganize part of the Army? We need full scale penetration divisions to defeat the Russians! 

This has been the core of military dogma since the early days of the cold war. But does it hold up? Let’s take a minute to talk about what we are seeing happening, and not happening, in both Russia and China. 

Russia

How the mighty have fallen. Russia, the USSR before it, has been our traditional boogie man. That fear is broken, maybe more that it should be, but they are still seen as a shadow of their former self… unless you need funding for a new weapon. So without getting super deep into the Ukrainian conflict, what is the strength and capacity of the Russia military and are they really a near-peer? 

So first off, let’s address the elephant in the room. Right now the Russian Army is too much metal and not enough manpower. America has active units, where all people and gear are active, and reserve units, where all people and gear are reserved and are all called up at once as a group. Most western militarizes run this way. Ex-soviet militarizes do not. They intermix their regulars with whatever mix of conscripts, reserves, militia, etc. they leverage to fill out their forces. 

This is part of what got Russia in trouble in Ukraine. They had units built around having lots of infantry, lots of artillery, and a bit of everything else in them. Overall, a solid modern force structure. They were 60% regulars and 40% conscripts… on paper. In reality the conscript side was only half full. So when commanders were to get ready to invade, they had to figure out which parts of their force to undermanned since they were only at 80% strength. Then when it became time to actually go in, debate about the conscripts flared up, and Putin said to leave them behind. That means large, multifaceted units found themselves running at only 60% man power at the start of a war. 

Lower level commanders couldn’t under man a full spectrum capability at that point, they had to outright cut capacity and everyone did so in different ways. This is why some Russian units lacked infantry but others didn’t. Why some lacked anti-air, but others didn’t. Why some lacked trucks and logistics, but others didn’t. Those who lacked infantry for screening got hit with anti-tank missiles. Those who lacked anti-air (which was top of the line) explains why Ukraine (using old jets) still has an air force. Those who lacked logistics just ran out of gas while other forces traveled farther while maneuvering. This is also why Ukraine was able to capture some high end Russian equipment without a fight. It was left unmanned because commanders had more vehicles than drivers.

Russia still has a quality military. What they lack in a quantity military. They have confused large armor reserves and potential conscript numbers with actual military forces. When they put all their pieces together and do small deployments they actually do a really solid job. We have watched that for years in Syria. We see elements of advanced missile and air forces, just not a large scale and consistently sustainable one. Russia is very capable at small wars, just not at scale.

So does the US Air Force need a 6th generation air force to go toe to toe with the air power that is ineffective in Ukraine? No. Do we need a new fleet of 200 destroyers to go up against the Russian Navy when we now know that the Blacksea Flagship, Moskva, was in such bad shape that they sent it out with 2 of 3 anti-missile systems non-functional and the 3rd only partially functional. No, let’s hold off on ordering the new ships. Do we need to rescale and reorganize all of our army units to form high end penetration divisions specifically to counter the Russia armor because, surely there is no way some shoulder fire missiles, counter strikes on their limited logistical vehicles, and just poor maintenance will undo the great Russian armor push, right? Yea, we can pass on the reorg. 

There is a real chance Russia will rebuild itself over the winter and maybe that new force will be worth worrying over? Possible, but very, very difficult as alot of the trainers and other support forces were already deployed directly in combat. What we see now from Russia is well within America’s capacity as long as we remain prepositioned and ready. 

UPDATE: Russia’s February offenses have already started and, mostly, failed. Specifically 2 of 3 attacks were repelled and Bakmut continues to be a Pyrrhic victory in the making. 

But that is ok, because we now have a new boogie man. An up and coming boogie man. A lean-mean production machine boogie man coming after our buddies Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. And unlike Russia, they are still communist. So let’s talk about the new Soviet Union: … 

China

… or are they? Stalin and Xi are very different rulers with very different goals, very different countries, very different resources to leverage, very different domestic issues, and facing very different international problems. 

At its heights, the Soviet Union was spending around 24% of GDP on the military. That is how they kept pace with the West. They were 1/12 the size so they spent 12 times as much. China has spent a massive amount on a military build up so that must mean they are doing the same thing right? Well… no. China spends about 6% of GDP on the military. That has held steady since the 80’s. What has changed is not the slice, but the size of the pie. As China’s economy has massively grown, so has its military spending but on pace with other parts of China. Yes, Xi wants to modernize the Chinese military, but he also wants to modernize the Chinese education system and China’s scientific community. There are massive infrastructure projects modernizing China’s infrastructure in power, rail, and water. There are projects to modernize China’s space program, modernize China’s social safety net in rural areas, and modernize and regulate both social media and other digital platforms. Xi wants to modernize as much as he can… including the military. 

A few centuries ago, Prussia was described as not a state with an army but an army with a state. The Soviet Union wasn’t far from that idea, but China is. China is not driven by their military, they are driven by their need for economic growth. The thing at the center of Chinese diplomatic affairs, the thing that keeps unrest down, and the thing that moves the nation forward in the eyes of the Chinese people is their economy, not their military. The military is at best a plan B or even a plan C given how China is leveraging their investments to make indebted client states.

So we should just ignore China’s military reforms then? Actually I think we need to do the opposite. I think we need to understand them without over simplifying them. I think we need to figure out what they are transitioning to and where they can or may use those capabilities down the road.  Only then can we figure out not just if we need a “near-peer” response but what kinds of near-peer response would fit and which don’t. 

For the second question I am going to propose 6 different possible defense scenarios with China. Some are more likely than others and each has their own quarks to them both in terms of how they will play out, what allies would join in, and what kinds of military assets are needed… and which would be a struggle to use. Those scenarios are: 

  1. Counter-Coup 
  2. Counter-Revolution 
  3. An invasion of Taiwan 
  4. An invasion of Japan 
  5. A joint invitations with North Korea on South Korea
  6. A sustained border conflict with India 
  7. An invasion in South East Asia 
  8. Enforced Sea/Air Dominance in the South Pacific 

Before we talk through these, just keep them in mind as we talk through the changes we are seeing happening in China now. 

So let’s look at just 4 changes: the 96 rifle, tanks, new marine formations, and J-20 fighters. Starting with the QBZ 96 bullpup rifle, this is a very compact rifle design. It is not optimized for full range combat or the rolling hills of Europe like most combat rifles are. Instead, it is one of the smallest silhouettes for a main rifle, making it easier to carry in compact armored vehicles or in tight urban situations. While many Western nations switch from battle rifles to submachine guns in urban settings, the 95 is a compromise design between both. It is also known for its smaller rounds and easier to control kick back. This makes it ideal for poorly trained troops or forces more focused on security, not wide ranging battlefields. It is also the cheapest military rifle in the world right now. This clearly places it in a quantity over quality approach. A skilled marksman and trained soldier would do better with any other battle rifle already in service around the world, but if your limiting factor is guns, not people, then this rifle makes perfect sense. 

So let’s talk tanks. The US has the venerable 55-tons Abrams, the Russia has 46-ton T-90s and the new 58-ton Armadas, Germany and swaths of NATO are using Leopard 2’s at 63-tons, and China… China is focusing on the 33-ton Type-15. 33-tons. Much lighter armor, much smaller gun, and it even carries less ammo. Why? Easier to deploy and requires less fuel… and once again, cheaper to build. This gives the PLA a much lighter footprint than NATO members or Soviet based forces, which would normally lead to heavy losses if they were going head to head against those heavier forces. 

Now I don’t want to present an unbalanced view here to overstate my point. China does have a mix of older, heavier tanks. In fact about 40% of their force is licensed T-54s. You know those old T-62 tanks people are making fun of Russia for using in Ukraine. Well those T-62 were the replacements for the T-54s. China does have a heavier tank called the type-99 which is a mix of reactive armor, long range cannon built around missile-ammo, and a reverse engineered german engine. But even in Chinese doctrine this is seen as not a leading element, but a stand-off element in most cases. It is also a tank design that emphasizes quantity over quality, which make sense for a country trying to leverage their population. Type-99s only make up about 10% of the force. The remaining middle half of the force is some between these two in technology. 

But you know what they are great at? You can drop them from a heavy lift aircraft. Now Taiwan has more than enough SAMs to deal with the easy target that is a heavy lift aircraft, so what is the target for that capacity? Rapid deployment within China. The type 15 can also travel over smaller bridges and more rugged terrain. This is clearly an issue when you look at a map of western China, not Taiwan. It also has its own built in oxygen compressor for very high altitudes and the main cannon, while smaller, has a much larger vertical aim range than most tanks have a need for. This is the ideal tank to take on India over the Himalayas. This is the fastest possible tank for the mountains of south China, deserts of west China, and the second wave of landings in an amphibious operation. This is not a Patton style armor-on-armor option, this is a Hannibal style of heavy forces coming out of places heavy forces should not be able to go. 

The J-20 is China’s new stealth fighter…. all though you have to take that with a grain of salt. Parts of the design were clearly taken from the confirmed theft of F-35 plans and India has already confirmed they can track these without an issue. It is possible that the J-20 have been flying with beacons running or doors open as well as India could just be lying. That said, even if a high powered  ground radar can track the aircraft, there are still situational tactical advantages to having more stealth elements on your plane even if the whole thing is not stealth. 

The real power of the J-20 is two fold: much better range and bigger missile bays. The J-20 is very large for a fighter. It is best to think of it filling a space between a traditional fighter and larger bomb that focuses on missiles. That large size hurts its maneuverability but helps with its flight range due to a much larger fuel capacity. 

That bigger size also allows for a bigger missile bay which also gives China an easier way to catch up on missile tech. Currently, the West has much better missile tech across the board and they have kept missiles down to the traditional sizes, largely because every aircraft wants to grandfather in all of those older specialized missiles made across America and Europe. By giving the J-20 a large bay, China is also upgrading the size of their missiles. This means they carry less of them, but this allows their lower developed but larger missiles to produce results similar to the smaller, more advanced NATO armament.

China runs about 1,900 fighters. Only about 70ish are the new J-20 of 5th generation quality. This is the one everyone likes to talk about but it is in the lowest number in their fleet of aircraft. Another 830 are upper tier 4th generation and are spread between 6 different models made in China, Russia, and upgraded USSR models. These are mostly flanker variants. After that you have 550 J-10s which are a low tier 4th generation fighter which is largely regarded as under performing but was China’s first real attempt to enter into the fighter marketplace. Finally there are about 450 3rd generation fighters still in service. 

China steadily replacing 1960’s aircraft with modern J-20 is a huge improvement, but the balance of the force is still largely 1991 Gulf War in quality and will remain so for at least two decades. This is a great air force for regional point defense and in quantity enough to deal with threats from multiple directions at once. It is a good spearhead for a medium scale invasion. 

These elements, mixed with traditional soviet style equipment, gives us large formations of light units designed around extended ranges or easy of deployment. Now that we have that pinned down, why did China build their forces like that and not like the West or Russia? Let’s walk through those potential operations. 

So the first is the one defense analysts like to talk about the most. And to be fair, this conflict would already have a name: the 4th Taiwan Strait Crisis. Why yes, this would be the 4th one and the previous three happened in 1955, 1958, and 1996. No, this is not new. In my measurement, this is one of two highly likely places for conflict. 

The problem with this analysis is it is the one everyone sees coming so it is the one people on both sides have worked on the most. Expect both sizes to be engaged in counter intelligence and have at least one ace up their sleeve. I can guarantee you China is hiding/over-stating/lying about their offensive capabilities. I can guarantee you Taiwan is hiding/over-stating/lying about their defensive capabilities. If either side is not, then they aren’t doing their job. 

The pendulum in the defense world has swung in favor of defense over offense at the moment. This is something we have seen in Ukraine and something China has peckishly admitted to. 

So lets review those 8 scenarios again

  1. Counter-Coup 
  2. Counter-Revolution 
  3. An invasion of Taiwan 
  4. An invasion of Japan 
  5. A joint invitations with North Korea on South Korea
  6. A sustained border conflict with India 
  7. An invasion in South East Asia 
  8. Enforced Sea/Air Dominance in the South Pacific 

The forces created on the tank and infantry side are ideal for tasks 1 and 2. They are ideal for 2 because given the quantity they can spread them out to control multiple large areas at once. This also makes it ideal for 1 as getting the whole military involved is incredibly difficult. Having no super heavy, super elite force to act at the king maker, any other larger formation of loyal troops can counter a military coup. Raw army size makes 1 harder and harder.

New Marine Forces would help with 3 and 4 as well as the lighter, faster deployable 2nd wave of light tanks. Maintaining that large fleet of older aircraft gives you an artillery alternative until larger guns can be landed on shore. These changes make sense for a proper invasion force… but they are just not at scale yet. They would need 4 to 5 times as many forces of these types. 

5 and 6 actually also make a lot of sense given the upgrades we have seen. China’s forces will still struggle but those force they are up against are also lighter than most so they line up is more favorable than you would expect in Europe. They have some adapted units now that can help with this very specific situations. Number 7 is really a mix of 3-4 combo and the 5-6 combo. This is now a full capability at scale for China. They have this ability (assuming a small land boarder) and are fully a threat. Politically, I don’t know who they would target this way, but they can if they want to. It is unclear is this is a real objective, a political threat, or the just the side effect of other objectives.

8 best explains what we see happening with China’s air force. This shift in planes and missiles make minimal sense in all the other scenarios but it makes scenes as an anti-US Navy option and really only as an anti-US Navy option. 

So what does all of this mean? China’s air force is tasked with dealing with the US Navy and their army is tasked with dealing with low to mid scale local operations with an emphasis on rapid response over difficult terrain types. The response needed for this is a strong counter play in the air to support the US Navy and then either heavy units already in position on the ground or a large, light, flexible rapid response force to match China’s. Anything outside these purview are defense spending programs you should be highly skeptical of. 

The US Air Forces move on B-21 and the US Marines dropping the tanks and doubling down on rotary makes sense in these contexts. Things like the Abrams-X, penetration divisions, or new nuclear subs, less so. 

An Introduction by Dave Arneson

So the following words are not my own. They are the introduction by Dave Arneson to his Blackmoor setting. The odd piece of history that exists between post-Chainmail and pre-D&D. It has some odd ideas but is also a brilliant piece of game design. I see large complex design issues being solved by combining these pieces together that I would normally not think to do.


From the first excursions into the dark depths of Blackmoor Castle’s Dungeon, it became apparent that these first hardy bands of adventurers would soon seek out new worlds to pillage. From the castle itself the small town of Blackmoor grew, then the surrounding countryside became filled with new holes to explore and beyond that talk was already spreading about visiting the Egg of Coot. Each of these steps entailed a great deal of work upon a naive Judge who felt that there was already more than enough trouble already available to satisfy any band of adventurers, a phrase no doubt heard rather frequently since then, in other areas. In general, a fairly loose procedure was set up for the establishment of each of these new areas, with a great deal of emphasis being placed on the players themselves setting up new Dungeons, with my original Dungeonmaster role evolving more into the job of co-ordinating the various operations that were underway at any given moment. At the height of my participation as chief co-ordinator, there were six Dungeons and over 100 detailed player characters to be kept track of at any one time.

Each area had to mesh with those areas that were around it, in so far as setting up the various monsters, etc, were concerned. It was also readily apparent, from previous experience running a “Conventional” Napoleonic Wargames campaign that some sort of Overall Background would have to be constructed to provide a framework within which the players could work. Thus the overall concept of the Evil Egg of Coot and the Great Kingdom was born. These two entities could prove to be the source of great events outside of the actual campaign, a source of new recruits and monsters, and give the stimulus, in the way of quests and adventures to give the players more of a motive than just looting the Dungeon. Also with such powerful and potentially aggressive neighbors, the locals decided that at least some taxes should be collected to provide for the common defense. This was a good plan but one which failed to take into account the drain placed on the local manpower pool by the repeated sorties into the Dungeon areas. So it was with the Dungeon of Blackmoor. It began with only the basic monsters in Chainmail and was only some six levels deep. Six levels was chosen since it allowed random placement with six-sided dice (no funny dice back then) (sic). So even in the Dungeon it became quickly apparent that there was a need for a greater variety of monsters, more definition even within the type of monsters, and certainly a deeper Dungeon.

So there were now different types of Dragons (by Size) and other new creatures, like Gargoyles, from standard mythology. AC was determined by description of the creature (Hide, scales, etc.) and how impervious it was in the accounts given in mythology about it. HD [read: hit dice or health] was determined pretty much on the size of the creature physically and, again, some regard for it’s mythical properties. For regular animals that were simply made larger, like Beetles, a standard text book provided interesting facts about the critters and all were given HD proportionate to their size, relative to other Beetles for instance. Insects were all given about the same AC with additions, again, for unique properties.

Character motivation was solved by stating that you did not get Experience Points until the money had been spent on your area of interest. This often led to additional adventures as players would order special cargos from off the board and then have to go and guard them so that the cargo would reach their lodging and then the player would get the Experience Points. More than one poor fellow found that his special motivators would literally run him ragged and get him killed before he got anything.

Combat was quite simple at first and then got progressively complicated with the addition of Hit Location, etc.. as the players first rolled for characteristics, the number of Hits a body could take ran from 0-100. As the player progressed, he did not receive additional Hit Points, but rather he became harder to Hit. All normal attacks were carried out in the usual fashion but the player revived a “Saving Throw” against any Hit that he received. Thus, although he might be “Hit” several times during a melee round, in actuality he might not take any damage at all. Only Fighters gained advantages [read: leveled up] in these melee Saving Throws. Clerics and Magicians progressed in their own areas, which might or might not modify their Saving Throws. And so it went, Hit Location so that even the mighty Smaug could fall to a single arrow in the right place (very unlikely), height differentiation, so that the little guys could run around more and the big ones could kill more, etc. Still these were guidelines, Hit Location was generally used only for the bigger critters, and only on a man to man level were all the options thrown in. This allowed play to progress quickly even if the poor monsters suffered more from it.

By the end of the Fourth year of continuous play Blackmoor covered hundreds of square miles, had a dozen castles, and three separate Judges as my own involvement decreased due to other commitments. But by then, it was more than able to run itself as a Fantasy campaign and keep more than a hundred people and a dozen Judges as busy then as they are today. Whether there will ever be the co-ordination of all the area Dungeons in the future as they were way back in “the Good Old Days” is unlikely, but already there are 20-30 people meeting every 4th Saturday to do Blackmoor and other Fantasy in related areas, so who can tell…after all, the keynote is that “Anything is Possible”, just that some are more likely than others.

– Dave Arneson


So lots of interesting ideas in there to unpack. First off, I think every DM can appreciate the world growing too fast and the players running off in the wrong direction… c’est la vie. It is also worth noting the Dave did not try to DM everything. He quickly let other people run things and made himself more of a WM (World Master) with others running dungeons as is needed.

Paragraph 4 has the best idea I have heard in a while and it is a details that is often missed. Yes, players want gold. But they gain xp by spending that gold. You don’t kill the dragon to gain a level and become powerful. Instead you kill the dragon, loots its’ horde, and then spend that horde on new armor and training… which makes you powerful in the story and gains you the level in the class.

Player are looking for a gold sink to gain levels with. Spending was not a second source of power to be controlled, it was the primary source of power so why not spend it in a way that helped your class. Players were trying to empty their pockets as fast as they could. Cleric would make scarifies to their Gods… because it was a gold sink, not for some boon. Yes, the bard going to the brothel is a legit gold sink to gain levels. And to add a level of story, the bard is not pious and the cleric stays pure, so they don’t get each other’s gold sinks. Both gold sinks have a set cost and thus growth is limited so players would spread it out over multiple sessions in town.

This inverts the tradition rules of player incentive. Fights are skilled in all weapons… so they can carry one of each, thus giving them more gold sinks. Players want to pay 5,000 gold for a +1 sword, but not for the sword. This also means gaining a title or rights to build a castle is a really big deal. This is why old school players would always build a keep and raise an army. The is how you gain the higher levels.

This also changes how the players interact with the world. The thief does not want to steal from vendors because that is lost xp. The town does not have unlimited supplies, so the players want to town to grow. Securing supply lines means more items means more gold can be spent means you gain a level. The party wants to save the town blacksmith when he is kidnapped by goblins… because if they don’t then they are limiting their own leveling. This solves for all kinds of in game problems.

The “saving throw” is really more an active dodge mechanic. I think it would slow the game down… but I like the feel. It allows for health to be kept lower so there is still a thrill. Maybe both roll at once, one to hit and the other to save to keep the game moving. Also limiting it to the fighters would work. This is also why armor originally went down instead of up. It was leaning into not an armor mechanic but a dodge mechanic.

If you start to look into the math underlying this systems, or at least as much of the math as we still know since Dave didn’t take notes and was always changing the rules, what you are looking at is:

  1. Hero, Fighter: 4 health, coin flip to dodge, coin flip to hit enemies with a killing blow (mostly)
  2. Hero, Cleric and Magic User: 2 health, coin flip to hit
    • Cleric get healing and some defense to stay alive
    • Magic User get invisibility and some movement spells to stay alive
  3. Basic Enemy: 1 health, coin flip to hit for 1 damage
  4. Big Enemy: more health but could still be killed on a lucking hit, player roll d100 against this enemy instead of a coin flip, the big enemy still does a coin flip to hit the heroes for 1 damage (or bonus effect)

This gets you a combat where the fighter can take out a half dozen basic enemies before they need healing. It is super fast… and just kind of works. Yes that example is over simplified to the point of inaccuracy, but if you want to do a quick test on the old system then use those numbers and see what you think.

Giving big enemies their own rule set is odd by modern standards, but is makes sense going from a war gamer. One-off rules to handle things like siege weapons or tanks were common and this does give the game that video game feel when the boss’ health bar appears on screen and you know things just got serious.

The Challenges of making StarChaser

So about a year ago I started to lay the groundwork for my new tabletop campaign. I knew I wanted to wrap up my current campaign, it was a homebrew fantasy setting using 5e Dungeons and Dragons, and those kinds of campaigns need finality to the character arcs. Also, I think 5e is irredeemably broken past a certain power level and we were well past that power level. So I started to aim that campaign to an ending point. I also used this time to revisit my cyberpunk system, Burning Light, which I have written about previously

Originally, I had planned to build out many themes and then let DM’s include whichever themes fit their world(s). I actually backed off of that plan because of how that often works at the table. Anytime WotC released a new expansion to D&D people wanted to play those classes/races even if they did not fit the world at all. In fantasy, including an odd race is slightly jarring but is often hand waved and still works ok, but in sci-fi introducing radically different technology can derail the entire setting. Recognizing that this disconnect was incoming, I pivoted. 

So I removed all the class/theme limitations from the game entirely and retitled the system “Star Chaser”. Anyone can be anything and use anything. And that worked really well. I asked my player to “stay adjacent to your character idea” but also over multiple sessions “grow your character”. They did this without a problem. I think it has more to do with specific players learning to love specific weapons and items… which is fine. Specific characters have developed a specific feel to them and a tactical specialization that the player maneuvered around without the need to create classes. Gear as class not only worked, it is better because the exact details of that balance shift somewhat session to session. 

This approach to players of “no, you tell me what you want to play and I will match you with options” really opened up player creativity. I would not have made half the ideas and class-like roles that the player naturally came up with. This open call to create something new and weird really worked. 

In Burning Light, we had the pawn shop function which was little more than me dealing the top 6 cards from my stack of 50 or so 3×5 cards, but in StarChaser there are way, way more items. From about 50 items in Burning Light to 3,000+ in StarChaser. That said, I still leveraged that pawn shop function. I am only in the second version of it, but currently it is 3 random weapons/armors, 3 random utility times, and 3 items with a shared idea like all are relics from a specific faction or all ground vehicles or all new crew members.  

Originally I had some crafting options to act as a backup to the pawn shop. I have since removed them. Partly, this was because the pawn shop generation needed some work as it was generally providing under powered or uninteresting items. Secondly, the alternative crafting method was way too powerful. The players were leaning on the alternative method almost entirely. At the end of the day, I wanted power gain to be connected to the world, not the character, and people trying new ideas, not a strategic level up process. Players have some control over the process by where they complete missions at. Either way, this puts the players dependent on the world to power up and not a rule set.

The long term goal here is this allows the DM to control gear/classes/power-features of the game directly via the pawn shop. If the DM does not like an item, reroll the option if it comes up in the pawnshop. This level of control is still session by session and not all the start of the game. So this is not a DM saying “low magic” during a campaign’s session zero or banning specific classes or builds. Instead the DM is holding back the magic items until much later on in the campaign or simply not letting a class’s mechanics be available in play. I.e., instead of a “No Monks Rule” the party just never seems to find Monk items. This is a more organic, and entirely behind the screen, balancing mechanic for the DM to use if needed. This also allows the DM to keep their world focused on the themes they want to play around. It stops that random idea derailing your world because a designer for a completely different setting published a fun book that works for their world but not yours. If players pull their power from class/source books, that different designer is a threat. If players can only pull their power from engaging in your world, then the DM can pick and choose the ideas that fit their world from that designer. That threat is now a buffet. 

Power scaling in gear is still something I am pinning down. In Burning Light, there was generally only one level of gear. A few pieces had an upgraded version. Originally in StarChaser I had 10 levels of power. Currently I have scaled that down to 4. The “new” four are just levels 1, 4, 7, and 10 of the previous system. That said the overall power scaling may still be too much. I may later scale them to 1, 3, 5, and 7. That said, my players have not really played a ton at the higher level and those items all contain drawbacks. We will have to see how hard that drawback hits as to if we need to scale those items back. 

I think I can get the weapon options a bit more flesh out within the current constraints, but 2 more options would really help. A lot of relic choices have not been fully leveraged so that will partially fill this gap. I also think this system will open up a bit when the drawbacks start to kick in. Some of the movement driven options are also only now being fully utilized. That said, even just 2 truly new weapon types may add in a lot of extra diversity to the combat options. 

So with 6 months of game play behind us, I am happy with mechanics overall. Improvements are needed in places, but happy overall. I think the real challenge of this system has been the world building. 

So where to even start? First off, I am used to building a world made up of cities, but in this system I needed to build a galaxy made up of systems made up of worlds made up of cities. I was two exponential scales larger than I was used to so I would have to invent new solutions. 

So I started at the largest scale and worked down. I spent a bit of time seeing if there was a way to make a functional 3D map but that was a rabbit hole with no easy solutions. So I decided on a flat map with about 100 solar systems. That is an awful idea and I was committed to it. I also wanted some randomness in the locations and pathing. To do this I spent some time in excel, basically using a random number function for 1 to 4 and then removing all results for 2-4. Wanting a 100 systems, that means I needed a 20 by 20 grind. I generated a few of these and picked the result with the more interesting set of patterns. This ended up being 94 systems. 

I then set out to create a random solar system generator. I did some research of what Nasa has found in its search for exo-planets and then applied some of the ideas into a random number generator. The idea here was to create different mixes of stars and then place planets in different bands. I ended up generating the star types first because there are S and P styles of binary star orbits. P types are close together and the planets rotate around both stars. S types are far apart and do not share planets. Each S type star with all their planets rotate around a mutual point between the two stars. 

For single stars and P-types, I used multiple bands beyond the star(s) with the possibility of empty results, asteroid belts, and gas giants with their own moons. The inner system always had 1-2 habitable planets, a low possibility of a gas giant, and a high possibility of a rock world in the first band. The out ring had a moderate possibility of a gas giant with moons in the first few spots and a mix of none, asteroid belts, or small rock world in the last few spots. For S star systems, I just ran the inner system twice and removed the outer system. 

I tweaked this system a bit and ran it a few times, once again picking the option that produced the most interesting mix overall. I also then decided to hand make the “core world” as those systems are actually the systems closest to the real earth, so when good quality data is available, that overwrites the randomly generated system. 

This is actually an approach I think works really well. Use random generation to create something different and unique, then as the DM respond to it and edits it as is needed. Do not hold the random result sacred, instead let it be an inspiration point. The random result will do the bulk of the work for you, but you will tie everything together. 

From here I realized I had just created 780+ worlds. I thought about all the work I had put into just one world in D&D and then released how much work may be in front of me. So take a deep breath, divide up the content, and go at it. I started by just working on the bottom right corner of the map. Sure enough, the solar systems created were interesting enough in their own right, I was able to ask myself “how would this system work?” and was able to come up with answers inspired by the systems. Some stories were smaller, some systems were denser and messy. Some systems were rich empires and other systems were barely scraping by. 

Part of this process was going out and finding every image of a planet I could find. Movies, video games, fan art, all of it was taken and categorized. When building the solar systems I then moved through the various rocks, forest worlds, etc. as they came up in order. This was a quick and dirty solution that worked really well. 

With the galaxy, solar systems, and planets taken care of, I was only left with cities… which has actually turned out to be the hardest part. I was spoiled when running fantasy games and there are so many great village maps and even full one village generators. Neither is true for sci-fi cities. I was kind of able to use some of the village generators… some of the time but only after a lot of manual manipulation. Right now I am working on a project to grab assets and be able to build out the cities in the raw directly on d20. I am not a huge fan of that solution so stay tuned to see how well that goes. 

Oh My Eru Ilúvatar, Rings of Power doesn’t understand Tolkien

Why the stars, the two trees, and the Sun matter

So there is no way to talk about Tolkien without some back story. It comes with the territory. This will be super abbreviated. 

Early on, there were no humans and no sun, just the stars and earliest elves. When Galadriel was born, a faction of the elves was living with the Valar (upper angels and greek gods parallels) and Maiar (lower angels, greek demi-gods, and celtic spirit parallels) in the west under the lights of the two trees. The two trees were a golden tree and a silver tree which shone not just with light, but with the reflection of God’s glory. Yes, it took massive giant world tree-like beings to handle the reflection of God glory and these two trees were it. They gave light to the Valar, Maiar, and the elves. 

An evil Valar attacked the land and killed the golden tree. When he did, instead of it being a victory it was his great loss. With the death of the golden tree, the sun rose for the first time, burning his orcs army by exposing them to its light. This is also the moment that man, children of the sun, first arose. With the coming of the armies of man and the sun to deny them half the day, this evil Valar had doomed himself. This was the power of the golden tree. But the silver tree was equally as powerful. 

As the silver tree was being destroyed, it projected its soul and power into the purest and wisest being it could find… a young elven girl named Galadriel caught its last lights. 

Who is Galadriel… and why she isn’t an angsty teen

And this… this is why we can’t have nice things. 

In the unfinished tales Tolkien said, “From her earliest years she had a marvellous gift of insight into the minds of others, but judged them with mercy and understanding.” And yet, she is a walking nuke. A living reflection of a reflection of the awe and might of God the creator. She has the soul and power of the silver tree living within her. That is why she can turn dark and project power and light. That is why Sauron flees from her, he is fleeing from the awe of God…. And in case you missed it, this is a parallel idea to have Jesus Christ come live in your heart as lord and savior. She is not magical, she is theological. 

She is the answer to the question “what if instead of Jesus, God the Father of the Old Testament lived in your heart”. Galadriel has embedded within her the Awe of God. Despite this, she is still pure of heart and tries to treat people with mercy and understanding. That is her character’s dichotomy, the walking nuke that strives to be a diplomat. When Frodo offered her the Ring, he was pushing the launch codes into the missile, but she had the wisdom to walk away and not follow the order. This was a real concern in Tolkien time and that scene reflects it. 

Galadriel was later described as “the greatest of the Nolder, except Feanor maybe, though she was wiser than him.” Keep in mind, Feanor fought off multiple Balrogs at once while Gandolf tied against a single one. Notice how in the Jackson films, the Wizards always bow to Galadriel and take her council even though they are literal angels. It takes the angels to fully see the God in her, which is why she is so respected by them. The Wizard-Angels are bowing to God through her. 

… and then this happened at Amazon:  

Jerk 1: Hey Boss, how do we write the most powerful and wisest woman in all of fantasy for the small screen? 

Jerk 2: I don’t know bro. Hey you know what is awesome? Swords! Let’s make her good at swords! Oh, and angsty as shit. That’s hot. 

Jerk 1: But how do angst and swords fit into the narrative about how even in death, like Jesus Christ, the trees only return more powerful and how their offshoots in new forms play out across the centuries of Middle Earth history? That the promise of God is kept even in hard times by new means, you know… hope. Or in this case the parallel stories of Galadriel and Gondor, both of the same white tree. 

Jerk 2: Oh, and then we can have her dual wield while fighting humans! 

Jerk 1: But how do angst and swords fit into the narrative about power versus mercy? Isn’t her new angst based personality actually in direct conflict with the core of her characterization is every previous Tolkien work and movie? 

Jerk 2: Oh, and she can be such a badass with swords and so angsty that the King has to send her away because she is a troublemaker. Yea, bad girls are hot right now. 

Jerk 1: But how do angst and swords fit into the narrative about her containing her great power, the power of God itself, while balancing his divine wrath against her desire for mercy and peace. Wouldn’t sword skills be the least of her powers? Wait, isn’t she actually more powerful than the King who is sending her away? 

Jerk 2: Oh, and we can have her fight a shark. No wait, a mega-shark…. 

Jerk 1: But how do angst and swords fit into the narrative of long standing alliances driven by common desires derived from a free people? Isn’t part of the message that if people are truly free then we will desire similar things, because fundamentally we are all the same? That all free people, with matching common desires, will lead to lasting peace? I mean she is the soul of the literal tree that is on Gondor’s crest and in their courtyard in Return of the King despite the fact that they are a very different race of beings? 

Jerk 2:  …Yea… Mega-Shark… 

Jerk 1: … yes sir, I will have it on your desk by Friday. 

Notice that here you have two different kinds of jerks here. Why do I call that out? Because WWGD (What would Galadriel do?). She would treat them differently and know the difference between what was in their hearts. Clearly, some people on this production really cared and poured themselves into some great details and ideas… and others just didn’t care about the lore, the history, and the way all the tiny elements in Tolkien are connected together. They grabbed the most recognizable proper noun they could find and then slapped it on their edgy OC (do not steal) sonic fanfic of a character with no regard about how it undoes huge swaths of Tolkien lore. 

They did not recognize the interconnected nature of their decisions. They ignored the wisdom that came before them. Congrats writers, you made yourself Boromir. I am sure choosing to be Sean Bean’s character will end well for you. 

Galadriel has the power of the silver tree. A power equal to that of the Sun and all the armies of man combined. She has the wisdom of the high angels. Is that who you wrote? This rendition of the character is so jarring it breaks the show for me. The best parallel I could come up with is image a film about a slave plantation during the civil war but on a whim the director decides to name the plantation owner Abraham Lincoln because it is a name he vaguely knows is from that time period. It muddles the point to say the least. 

Why is that Elrond? 

So this is another great example of grabbing a well known name and then writing someone else entirely. Why call this elf Elrond? Elrond has a very specific back story and role in the world. None of that has been leveraged thus far. It is the right place and time for him, but both Gil-Galad and Elrond were skeptical of the ring project, not in the middle of it. Once again, if you want to use the names of very wise characters, don’t make them act stupid. You could have given him any name and the story would have been the same, other than a few references to his father. 

I like this story line. It has some moments and depth to it, when you fast forward past the unneeded conflicts that cause minor no long term problems. An elven diplomat struggling to work with the dwarves is a classic Tolkien story. Just do that well and move on. I have seen this bit in every D&D game I have ever played and the show does it fine. It is not groundbreaking but it works. But it could have worked with anyone. Elrond brings you name recognition but it also brings you lore and character baggage. You can’t just wave that away. That is the cost of using the name and if you don’t pay for it then your character is jarring in the story. 

Stop trying to not say things

Angst is not plot development. Pointless interpersonal conflict that instantly resolves itself is not plot development. Things changing are plot development. Get on with it. The only thing you have accomplished with your dialog is they don’t like each other. And you know what? I don’t like them either and that is a problem. 

Writing angst runs the risk of getting readers/watchers to dislike your characters. If your characters grow and overcome their angst, then they become more likable and change for the better. If you only do angst, then the natural result is that the longer your story goes with only angst the more of your characters people will dislike for legitimate reasons. This is how to make people not care about your characters and in turn, your story. Angst is like blood thinner, in small dosages and specific situations, it is good medicine. In large dosages it is just rat poison. 

A twist is when you think something is one way but it turns out another. If you say so little, masking everything in vague pronouns, or nothing at all, then I just think it is neither way or just unclear. A twist required that things be known and settled. If it is always unclear, then the result is not a twist, it is just the plot finally happening. It is not a dramatic turn around, it is audience yelling “finally, we are moving forward”. 

These issues are a fundamental problem with the series. If I don’t care about your original characters because they are all angst, I don’t recognize the characters I have known for decades, and your twists are not twists just really… really… ssslllllooooowwww plot development. Why should I still watch? I mean, I just wrote a 2,000 word blog entry on it so clearly I care about Tolkien, but no part of this is Tolkien.

If you dropped the Tolkien IP altogether then this would be a solid fantasy series with great visuals but some pacing and dialog issues. Improve the writers and fix it in season 2. As a piece of Tolkien, well it is rat poison or the end of a Sean Bean character, your choice. 

A new approach to RPG design

So today we are going to get very esoteric and do some high level game design analysis: why are all RPGs unbalanced? Seriously, show me a MMORPG that does not have a hundred reddit posts complaining about balance. Or long winded blog posts complaining about balance on tabletop RPGs. Or dark scroll style games that don’t develop cheesy strategies or underwhelming/overwhelming character builds. Why are really skilled game designers getting this wrong everywhere all the time? 

I blame Gygax. I respect the hell out of Gygax, but it is also his design that is causing this problem. To be fair, other designers have had 50 years to improve the Gygax’s underlying design but instead they keep following the same structure dogmatically. So let’s walk through that. 

There is a concept in design known as an Iron Triangle. It is one of those “you can pick any 2 of 3… but you can’t get all 3.” So “service, quality, and price” is the classic example of this idea. I argue that we face a similar trade-off in the RPG design space: player input, balanced output, and deterministic outputs. 

The core of the Gygaxian design that underlines most MMORPGs, tabletop RPGs, and Dark Soul style games is centered on player input and deterministic outputs. The more you can tweak your character, specifically in little details, and those systems directly translate all numbers (which is so ingrained it is assumed) the more room there is for players to find an unbalanced outcome. As these games are highly complex, there are always combos of options where some numbers will not align as expected. I know every designer says to themselves “yea, but this time I’m doing it so this time we will get it right!” and once again we get another unbalanced RPG. 

So what would happen if we did this in the opposite direction? What if we start with the output? What if instead of building a system to generate the outputs… we just design the outputs, let players pick their outputs, and skip all the nonsense in between? In fact, let’s look at all three possible options: 

  1. [player inputs + deterministic outputs = unbalanced game]
  2. [balanced output + deterministic outputs = no room for player’s character design]
  3. [player inputs + balanced output = builds are not continuous]

So most RPGs, etc., systems follow the first option. MOBAs and fighting games follow the second design mix which works great for competitive games but lacks variety. You can play Ryu, but everyone’s Ryu is the same Ryu. The 3rd is the most interesting to me. What if we predetermine all outcomes but let players select between outcomes? Yes, this removes “my warrior does +8 base damage with 11% critical hit and your warrior does +9 base damage with 9% critical hit” but is that slight level of customization worth an unbalanced game? 

And this is my pitch to game designers. We need to stop trying to make players engage in the spreadsheet game. So yes, still have customization, but instead of a contentious mix what if we just figure out how to build 12 different kinds of Ryu and then let players select between them all? We can still use the ideas behind stats… but balance each character based on those ideas. So have a slightly stronger Ryu, a slightly faster Ryu, and a Ryu with a higher critical hit chance. Each of those answers are messy in a deterministic system because each character might need a different mix of speed boost or critical hit chance. Those aren’t universal answers across different character types and when we treat them like they are we get an unbalanced game. That or we do what World of Warcraft ended up doing, which is make those numbers work differently in not just every class, but every spec within every class. A “+ critical hit” bonus becomes very powerful for some and for others it does not. That is a massive balancing project and one that only makes sense in the context of a computer game which does all the math for you and a very large and well funded design team that constantly patches their game… and the balance is still wrong in most expansions. 

So what does it look like to design to determined outputs? And how does this fit into leveling mechanics? 

My first attempt to do this is found here: https://seanwitherspoon.com/2019/09/07/alpha-test-of-my-cyberpunk-table-top-game/ and it worked well. This version tested end points with characters having access to a limited pool of gear. This version did limit gear access by a class like mechanic and gear did not level up, all progression as horizontal. It gave players lots of choices that they like and the players thought it felt really well balanced. It was also super straightforward to make a character and select options. 

While I think this was a great starting point, it is time to push it further. In my next iteration, I will be both adding in leveling elements and removing the class limitations. Both of these elements may unbalance the game, so that is something I will be watching for. Adding in leveling elements was a fun problem for me to solve for and my answer is actually fairly simple. I created a spectrum of power options for different profiles of weapons/powers and placed everything somewhere on that spectrum. This creates a really simple system to answer the question “what does the leveled up version of this weapon look like”. This spectrum has also been leveraged to build a very fluid crafting system and gear upgrade system. A nice side effect of this approach. 

The balance concern comes from two places. The weapons profiles are built around the idea that some weapons should do more damage because they are hard/risky to use and some should do less damage because they grant some other bonus. I did this with the weapons in my cyberpunk game and it worked really well, but does it scale well? Does it still feel balanced if different characters are upgrading different parts at different times? I am leaving the upgrade mechanics pretty wide open here so we will see if that gets out of hand. 

The second balance issue is I am no longer relying on classes as a balance crutch. Yes, classes are a balance crutch in most systems because if everyone can do something special then you need everyone even if 80% of the time that other class is notably sub optimal. Classes can be used as a way to provide a minimal level of balance. You are the best at least 20% of the time, so it is ok if you suck the other 80%… but it actually isn’t ok it is just bad design. Previously I had 7 classes and everyone was a combo of 2 of them. Here I will be leaving classes out entirely… but some higher level items will require training or other in game options/investments that limit access to them. The idea here is to have so many good things worth investing in that not everyone will invest in everything. This is a way to back into classes at mid levels using softer systems that players can invest in now or invest in later. 

So there you have it. In a few weeks I will start to test this new design which removes the deterministic outputs and instead focuses on pre-balanced outputs, character input being a selection between them, and player not forced to struggle through the weeds of additive stats or multiplicative class features. 

How Biden should pivot on his legislative tactics

When 50% + 1 is not 50% + 1; or why Democrats did not actually win the Senate in 2020 

Sorry Democrats, you did not actually win the Senate in 2020. You did win the leadership of the Senate and technically have a majority because of it, but you have to ask yourself “what is the quality of that majority”. That is a much more difficult question. 

America likes to pretend that it is a two party system compared to the 3 to 5 party systems found in Europe. But that is not really true. America’s political parties morph far more often than party loyalists like to admit and each party does have its own wings and fracture lines. Those factions roughly fit together on most issues so they can get along enough to form a more permanent coalition. European countries often do the same thing, just not in as formal a manner. There are plenty of examples of “traditional partners” between parties that also coordinate who runs in which elections and engage in joint fund raising. Are those still small political parties working together or the same party under two different names? Is the US Democratic Party really a single political party or a lot of different interest groups working in tandem with each other? Regardless of where you land on those questions, I would say that the answers are not simply yes or no. 

So let’s say we break the standard red/blue analysis, what are we looking at? Well the obvious swing democrats at Machin, Sinema, and Tester. Machin is both an outspoken swing voter and has a history of pushing back hard against Democratic leadership on policy issues. Sinema and Tester are more mixed. Tester, representing Montana, is quieter on larger issues but does push back on the policy front, specifically on banking and agriculture. He has stated that for democrats in rural areas, the “message is really, really flawed”. Given that Tester has had more success than the rest of the party in rural red states, it is time they start to listen to him. Sinema, representing Arizona, has been very outspoken but that has not fully translated to policy changes or swing votes against major bills. There is a lot of potential for a heavy swing voter here, but only time will tell. 

Republicans carry two of the most reliable swing votes right now: Mitt Romney and Susan Collins. Mitt Romney has the guts, and defendable seat, to stand up to his own party like no one else in the Senate. He is not that moderate of a Republican, but does swing back against his own party on matters of principles with regularity. Susan Collins has a long history as both a swing vote on medical issues and often as a mediator between the right and left that finds red votes and brings them over to blue bills… if those bills are more purple than blue. With Collins, it is not a question of can you get a medical bill passed. It is a question of how much are democrats willing to give up to get that bill passed, because Collins has a record for finding the votes. 

This means instead of a 50-50 Senate we actually need to be talking about a 47-3-2-48 Senate (blue to red). That actually gives you a lot of possibilities, possibilities for both success and failure. 

Why Purple has to be the new Blue; or what happens when your party has to lose strategically because you can’t win

As much as pundits and news channels play up the split between red and blue areas, I think this is largely false except in the case of elections. The hard truth is the core of the Republican Party and the core of the Democratic Party have drifted so deep into their own echo chambers that both now find themselves in a self-sustaining block unable to reach out to members of the other party… and now unable to reach out successfully to that large block of moderate independents that swing elections. This creates an opportunity in the middle for maverick politicians. Purple Democrats can, and have, won in red states (Hello Georgia). Purple Republicans can do the same in blue states (Hi there Virginia). 

The hard truth is that if either party wants to make gains in the other color’s states, they have to recruit purple candidates. The deeper blue or deeper red a state gets, the more the candidate plays to their own party’s core but the less well they do with moderates. This creates an opportunity for the other party to steal the state with a purple candidate. The cost of this dynamic is those purple candidates often run not as a member of their own party, but as an alternative to the leading party in the state. Red states aren’t voting between a “Republican vs. Democrat”, they are in fact voting between a “Republican vs. a Purple Independent with Democratic leanings.”

This only works if the purple candidate actually stays in a pro Independent Moderates position. Fake purple candidates lose reelection fast, and often to deep blue/red opponents. This means you have to consider not just who wins, but what is the quality of that win. You can’t count on that genuine purple candidate once they reach the legislature. That means the Democratic “50” may actually be closer to a reliable 47 with the Republican reliable 48 being a stronger position. As the echo chambers within each party continue to dominate the nomination process in some states, the “winning” party in the Senate may have to get used to acting like a minority party when it comes time to actually write laws.

How to write bills for a purple legislature; or why Build Back Better failed continuously for 6 month before it officially failed

The thing you have to do when dealing with a “majority”, really 47-3-2-48, that requires purple senators is abandon the idea of giant, wide ranging bills. You are not going to get those done. Objections carry more weight than agreement in the minds of people so the larger you make a bill the more objectionable it will become. A focused, single party can work around those objections but a purple party can’t. The Build Back Better bill includes wind turbines, covering the medicaid gap, child tax credit, preschools, and funding post-high school apprenticeship programs, adding new immigration courts, etc. That is not just a lot of stuff, it is a lot of stuff to object to. For purple party members in states dominated by the other party, this is a bill filled with landmines that can sink your next campaign. It is also filled with things that you promised in your own campaign, but remember that objections outweigh agreement. 

Instead of these grand bills, the Democrats need to write small, specific bills. Let’s put these ideas into their own bills and see where we lose the purple votes and if we can make them up with swing voters from the republicans. Breaking those bills out a bit: 

  • Wind Turbines: Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas are all red states and are seeing a boom in new wind power projects. While there are still climate change deniers in that group of Senators, they also commonly play both sides. Denying global warming, but talking up power without smog. They will not vote for a “Green Bill to Save the Planet from Pending Doom” but will vote for a “Clean Air Infrastructure Investment” which contains all the same elements. That is an angle that can be leveraged… but not in an omnibus bill packed next to other “green” initiatives and regulations. 
  • Covering the Medicaid Gap: There has always been a small number of Republicans willing to switch sides on medical issues. Remember, recently Republicans wanted to overturn Obamacare but were stopped by a fraction of 3 Republican Senators. That faction is still strong and can be leveraged again. 
  • Child Tax Credit: Machin has objected strongly to this point… but many Republicans actually haven’t, they have taken no position. Polls show that 41% of Republicans support the tax credits and less taxes is core to the Republican platform. The original version of the tax credit was championed by President Ford (R), then amended on a bipartisan basis in 1997, and in 2017 the Republicans pushed to doubt the credit as part of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). There are clearly Republican votes that can be won here if disconnected from the rest of the act. 
  • Funding Post High School Apprenticeship Programs: southern states have been pushing this line for a while now and with great success. Specifically Alabama which has been quietly building one of the best technical college systems in the country. 
  • Adding New Immigration Courts: Florida, Texas, and Arizona senators have all spoken up in favor of additional immigration courts as they are often the states that deal with the influx of immigrants. That is 6 open red votes readied to be swung on this topic. 

While the Build Back Better bill has failed, I believe it is possible for Democrats to get the bulk of it into law by other means. The votes are there, it is just not always the same combination of votes. In all cases, you will need to recruit a Republican or two. There are plenty of options… but you have to actually cut a deal with them and make it happen.

… and this is where I am confused. President Biden was a US Senate for 36 years. He had a long history on both the Judiciary Committee and Foreign Relations Committee working closely with Republicans and finding a mix of both moderate and liberal issues to support. He knows this game better than anyone. How is he missing this? Louisa Terrell is his Director of Legislative Affairs. She has been working in his circle in and out for 20+ years. She is one of the few human beings liked by both Republicans and Democrats on the Hill and in interviews she is blunt about being realistic on legislative issues. I am unsure where this break down on the scope of bills is coming from.