The Air Force

I’m starting with the Air Force because I think they face the binary choice more clearly that the other forces and have made selections with the clearest bias to one-side. The Air Force is making decisions focused on Great Power War. Their argument is the straight forward. For them peacekeeping is largely about sustained air power for close air support. Any option that increases the number of GPS bombs and rotary cannons available is an improvement.

In 2000, the tactical side of the Air Force was a mix of a small number of F-15Cs (high end air superiority), a very small number of F-15Es (high end strike), large numbers of F-16 (low end dual purpose air superiority and strike), small numbers of B-1s and B-2s (strike, non-close air support), medium numbers of A-10 (anti-armor and close air support), and small numbers of AC-130 (close air support). Note, we actually have used the F-15 models A thru D for air superiority, for simplicity sack I will only be referencing the C model as it is currently the predominate of the 4. Since then most of the F-15c have been replaced with F-22s. The F-35 is set to replace the F-15Es and F-16s, in terms of GPS bombs the F-35 will carry more in these kinds of engagements (not stealth). The B-1B crews begin to train in CAS back in 2002 and in 2008 those aircraft were modified to handle laser guided bombs in addition to the standard GPS bombs for close air support. The newest version of the C-130 can switch from a traditional C-130 to an AC-130 which means instead of a small number of AC-130s the Air Force is able to deploy large numbers of AC-130s. On top of this we also have the addition of the predator drones with Hellfire missiles.

The end results is a massive increase in the number of available of GPS bombs. In this context, the USAF has decided to retire the much loved A-10 to maintain other forces. The hope is that although it is a loss, it will be the minimal possible loss with the additional GPS bombs and the AC-130s and predators filling the rotary cannon gap.

In the A2/AD context it is believed that the AC-130, A-10, Predator, F-16, F-15, and B-1s are vulnerable. Replacing the F-15 and F-16 with F-22 and F-35 addresses those problems with the F-35 providing the bulk of the strike capacity until the A2/AD threat has been removed. This school of thought continues with the argument that in enough numbers, complex, expensive, but highly versatile aircraft like the F-35 with a minimal of more specialized aircraft like the F-22, B-2, and a mix of autonomous options Predators Drones and Cruise Missiles; we will perform both Great Power War and Peacekeeping with the same high-end force.

However there are those who disagree with the Air Forces stances. Although it is accepted that the F-22 is superior to the F-15C and brings tremendous capabilities to battlefield, it is also worth noting that the F-15C has over 100 air to air kills and has yet to be shot down. Those kills are spread across not only the US in Desert Storm (30+ kills) but also earlier versions of the F-15 used by Israel (50+ kills from 79 to 82). Given the great expense of the F-22 and the resulting limitations from Congress on purchases, this means we are transitioning from a fleet of 800 F-15Cs to one of 186 F-22. In fact of the 20 air superiority squadrons we run today, only 12 squadrons were transitioned to the new F-22 while 8 squadrons remain flight the venerable F-15C. There is a similar story in terms of trading quantity for quality with the transition to F-35. The 1,700 new F-35 will be replacing 2,500 F-16, 120 F-15E, and 300 A-10.

Those who hold that peacekeeping is a critical mission set for the US Military truly hate and greatly disagree with the retirement of the A-10. It is a low cost, high-powered aircraft that can provide a unique, high-powered rotary cannon for close air support possible for the troops on the ground. Many of these critics point to the Gulf War where we grounded the A-10 for the opening weeks due to the anti-air threat but after those Iraqi A2/AD elements were targeted and destroyed the A-10s took to the air and wreaked havoc on Iraqi armor.

It is worth noting that our Air Force has been very busy in the last 3 decades. They have had two air wars in Iraq, steady operations in Afghanistan, and NATO operations in Kosovo and Libya. We have a number of aircraft that are veterans of five wars. Aircraft do wear out have do have to be replaced. New stocks of F-15C, F-16, and A-10 would be needed even if we were not upgrading to F-22s and F-35s.